6.03.2026
This undated photo provided by NASA shows a view from orbit looking at the surface of the moon. (Ernie T. Wright/NASA via AP, File)
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — NASA issued a welcomed all-clear Thursday, saying there’s now zero chance that asteroid 2024 YR will crash into the moon in 2032.
The space agency had been predicting a 4.3% chance of a direct hit. But observations by the Webb Space Telescope in February helped scientists refine the asteroid’s orbit.
This new information indicates that the asteroid will miss the moon by 13,200 miles (21,200 kilometers) on Dec. 22, 2032.
Discovered at the end of 2024, the asteroid at first looked like it might threaten Earth.Scientists last year ruled out a collision with our planet anytime in the next century, but kept the moon as a possible target. The asteroid is about 200 feet (60 meters) across.
Quelle: AP
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New NASA Asteroid Observations Eliminate Chance of 2032 Lunar Impact
Using data from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope observations collected on Feb. 18 and 26, experts from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California have refined near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4’s orbit and are ruling out a chance of lunar impact on Dec. 22, 2032. With the new data, 2024 YR4 is expected to pass by the lunar surface at a distance of 13,200 miles (21,200 km).
This update reflects improved precision in our understanding of where the asteroid is expected to be in 2032 rather than a shift in its orbital path. Previous analyses, made before the incorporation of these new observations, suggested 2024 YR4 had a 4.3% chance of lunar impact on this date.
The observation team, led by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, used Webb to capture the two additional observations of 2024 YR4 in an application of the telescope’s unique capabilities. Since spring of 2025, the asteroid has been unobservable from both Earth and space-based observatories except for this use of Webb to make among the faintest ever observations of an asteroid.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in late 2024 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile. In early 2025, the information available about the asteroid’s trajectory indicated the asteroid had a small, but notable chance of impacting Earth. Over time with more observations collected by observatories around the world, NASA concluded the object poses no significant impact risk to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, or through the next century. It’s typical to have initial observations and risk models updated once additional observational data is gathered and models are able to be refined.
Quelle: NASA
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Asteroid 2024 YR4 will not impact the Moon
Last year, an approximately 60 metre near-Earth object captured global attention. For a brief period, asteroid 2024 YR4 became the most dangerous asteroid discovered in the last 20 years. While an Earth impact was soon ruled out, the asteroid faded from view with a lingering 4% chance of striking the Moon on 22 December 2032.
Now, that risk has been eliminated. Astronomers have confirmed that 2024 YR4 will not impact the Moon using new observations made by the Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) on the NASA/ESA/CSA James Webb Space Telescope. Instead, it will safely pass the Moon at a distance of more than 20 000 km.
As asteroid 2024 YR4 raced away from Earth and faded from view last spring, it was widely assumed that it would not be visible again until 2028. But an international team of astronomers identified two narrow opportunities in February 2026 in which they believed that Webb may be able to detect the faint speck against a sparse backdrop of stars whose positions are very well known thanks to the work of ESA’s Gaia mission.
The challenge was significant: to use one of the most complex machines humankind has ever built to track an almost invisible object many millions of kilometres away – and then accurately predict its position almost seven years into the future.
Webb was designed to study galaxies and other vast cosmic structures billions of light-years away. The telescope’s field of view is very small, and detecting one of the faintest asteroids ever targeted within it required extraordinary precision.
Careful planning and analysis of the observations were coordinated through a close collaboration between ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre, NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, and the Webb mission.
Despite the challenges, the observations were a success. By comparing 2024 YR4’s position relative to the background stars, the team was able to measure its orbit accurately enough to rule out a lunar impact in 2032.
Decades of engineering, international cooperation, and innovation in the fields of science, engineering and planetary defence culminated in the use of humankind’s most powerful robotic space telescope, built by many nations, to spot a distant speck of dust across the void and answer a question of universal importance to all the inhabitants of our planet.
The Moon is safe, 2024 YR4 poses no danger, but the work continues. The Planetary Defence team in ESA's Space Safety Programme continues to detect and track near-Earth objects to ensure that if a genuine danger ever emerges, we will not be caught unaware.
Find out more about these activities at the links below.
Quelle: ESA