31.05.2023

China's newest hypersonic missile, the DF-27, can fly as far as Hawaii, penetrate U.S. missile defenses and pose a particular threat to U.S. aircraft carriers, according to news reports of an assessment from the Pentagon.

Chinese researchers claimed in a May 2023 research journal report that the country's hypersonic missiles could destroy a U.S. carrier group "with certainty." This capability threatens to sideline U.S. aircraft carrier groups in the Pacific, potentially shifting the strategic balance of power and leaving the U.S. with limited options for assisting Taiwan in the event China invades.

This shift in the balance of power highlights how the next-generation hypersonic missiles that China, Russia and the U.S. are developing pose a significant threat to global security. I am an aerospace engineer who studies space and defense systems, including hypersonic systems. These new systems pose an important challenge due to their maneuverability all along their trajectory. Because their flight paths can change as they travel, defending against these missiles requires tracking them throughout their flight.

A second important challenge stems from the fact that they operate in a different region of the atmosphere from other existing threats. The new hypersonic weapons fly much higher than slower subsonic missiles but much lower than intercontinental ballistic missiles. The U.S. and its allies do not have good tracking coverage for this in-between region, nor do Russia or China.

Destabilizing effect
Russia has claimed that some of its hypersonic weapons can carry a nuclear warhead. This statement alone is a cause for concern whether or not it is true. If Russia ever operates this system against an enemy, that country would have to decide the probability of the weapon being conventional or nuclear.

In the case of the U.S., if the determination were made that the weapon was nuclear, then there is a very high likelihood that the U.S. would consider this a first strike attack and respond by unloading its nuclear weapons on Russia. The hypersonic speed of these weapons increases the precariousness of the situation because the time for any last-minute diplomatic resolution would be severely reduced.

It is the destabilizing influence that modern hypersonic missiles represent that is perhaps the greatest risk they pose. I believe the U.S. and its allies should rapidly field their own hypersonic weapons to bring other nations such as Russia and China to the negotiating table to develop a diplomatic approach to managing these weapons.

What is hypersonic?
Describing a vehicle as hypersonic means that it flies much faster than the speed of sound, which is 761 miles per hour (1,225 kilometers per hour) at sea level and 663 mph (1,067 kph) at 35,000 feet (10,668 meters) where passenger jets fly. Passenger jets travel at just under 600 mph (966 kph), whereas hypersonic systems operate at speeds of 3,500 mph (5,633 kph) - about 1 mile (1.6 kilometers) per second - and higher.

Hypersonic systems have been in use for decades. When John Glenn came back to Earth in 1962 from the first U.S. crewed flight around the Earth, his capsule entered the atmosphere at hypersonic speed. All of the intercontinental ballistic missiles in the world's nuclear arsenals are hypersonic, reaching about 15,000 mph (24,140 kph), or about 4 miles (6.4 km) per second at their maximum velocity.

Intercontinental ballistic missiles are launched on large rockets and then fly on a predictable trajectory that takes them out of the atmosphere into space and then back into the atmosphere again. The new generation of hypersonic missiles fly very fast, but not as fast as ICBMs. They are launched on smaller rockets that keep them within the upper reaches of the atmosphere.

Three types of hypersonic missiles
There are three different types of non-ICBM hypersonic weapons: aero-ballistic, glide vehicles and cruise missiles. A hypersonic aero-ballistic system is dropped from an aircraft, accelerated to hypersonic speed using a rocket and then follows a ballistic, meaning unpowered, trajectory. The system Russian forces have been using to attack Ukraine, the Kinzhal, is an aero-ballistic missile. The technology has been around since about 1980.

A hypersonic glide vehicle is boosted on a rocket to high altitude and then glides to its target, maneuvering along the way. Examples of hypersonic glide vehicles include China's Dongfeng-17, Russia's Avangard and the U.S. Navy's Conventional Prompt Strike system. U.S. officials have expressed concern that China's hypersonic glide vehicle technology is further advanced than the U.S. system.

A hypersonic cruise missile is boosted by a rocket to hypersonic speed and then uses an air-breathing engine called a scramjet to sustain that speed. Because they ingest air into their engines, hypersonic cruise missiles require smaller launch rockets than hypersonic glide vehicles, which means they can cost less and be launched from more places. Hypersonic cruise missiles are under development by China and the U.S. The U.S. reportedly conducted a test flight of a scramjet hypersonic missile in March 2020.

Defensive measures
The primary reason nations are developing these next-generation hypersonic weapons is how difficult they are to defend against due to their speed, maneuverability and flight path. The U.S. is starting to develop a layered approach to defending against hypersonic weapons that includes a constellation of sensors in space and close cooperation with key allies

With all of this activity on hypersonic weapons and defending against them, it is important to assess the threat they pose to national security. Hypersonic missiles with conventional, non-nuclear warheads are primarily useful against high-value targets, such as an aircraft carrier. Being able to take out such a target could have a significant impact on the outcome of a major conflict.

However, hypersonic missiles are expensive and therefore not likely to be produced in large quantities. As seen in the recent use by Russia, hypersonic weapons are not necessarily a silver bullet that ends a conflict.

SpaceDaily News Analysis

Industry Analyst A - International Security and Defense Analyst
Relevance: 9/10

The International Security and Defense Analyst would find the article highly relevant as it delves into the geopolitical implications of China's hypersonic missile capabilities and its impact on the US's power in the Pacific. The shift in power dynamics, threat to US aircraft carriers, and implications for global security are of primary concern.

Industry Analyst B - Aerospace and Missile Systems Analyst
Relevance: 10/10

As an Aerospace and Missile Systems Analyst, this article would be extremely relevant. It provides details about the technical aspects of hypersonic missile systems, including their speed, flight paths, and types. It also touches on the defensive measures taken by countries such as the US to counter these threats.

Industry Analyst C - Diplomacy and International Relations Analyst
Relevance: 8/10

A Diplomacy and International Relations Analyst would find this article quite relevant. The potential for hypersonic missile proliferation to shift geopolitical power and induce new forms of diplomatic negotiations, especially concerning nuclear capabilities, would be of particular interest.

Analyst Summary:
China's emerging hypersonic missile capabilities, according to an article, are altering the geopolitical balance of power in the Pacific region and pose a significant threat to US defense and national security. The development of these hypersonic systems, characterized by their speed, maneuverability, and unique atmospheric operating range, presents a strategic challenge that transcends the conventional defense scope. Given their potential for nuclear warhead delivery, these missiles could exacerbate geopolitical tensions and trigger escalations, underlining the need for diplomatic negotiations on their control and deployment. The complex and evolving nature of these threats underscores the importance of multidimensional approaches, from aerospace advancements to international diplomacy, to ensure a balanced global security landscape.

Benchmarking:
Over the past 25 years, missile technologies have grown more sophisticated, with countries increasingly focusing on hypersonic capabilities. However, China's purported hypersonic capabilities represent a significant leap forward, potentially upsetting the established geopolitical equilibrium. Additionally, the possibility of these missiles carrying nuclear warheads echoes Cold War-era nuclear anxieties, suggesting a potential reemergence of deterrent-based international relations.

Investigative Questions:
1. What specific technologies are embedded in the DF-27 that enable it to penetrate US missile defenses? Understanding these details is crucial as it can provide insights into China's technical capabilities and potential areas where the US may need to improve its defensive systems.

2. How will China's hypersonic missile capabilities impact the broader defense industry, particularly in the US? This is vital as it can help identify the adjustments required in defense strategies, including missile defense systems, military operations, and procurement priorities.

3. What potential future developments can we anticipate in hypersonic missile technologies, and how might these further shift geopolitical power dynamics? This question is critical as it can guide strategic planning and preemptive measures in the face of evolving threats.

4. What are the potential obstacles or challenges in countering the threat of hypersonic missiles, from a technical and geopolitical perspective? This question is significant as it can reveal limitations in existing defense systems and potential issues in international relations or negotiations.

5. How have key stakeholders, such as the US and its allies, reacted to China's hypersonic missile advancements, and what actions are they likely to take? This is crucial as stakeholder responses will shape the future of defense policies, military alliances, and diplomatic engagements.

Quelle: SD