17.09.2025

The plan faces some skepticism from industry, citing massive investment requirement for potentially relatively little.

Spaced based interceptors are a critical piece of the Golden Dome architecture that not only mitigates threats early in their trajectory but also improves performance of the entire Golden Dome. (Northrop Grumman graphic)

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has proposed an unusual plan to develop boost-phase space-based interceptors (SBIs) that would require firms to build and launch prototypes to compete for relatively small prize awards — in the hopes that winning the trials will lead to big production contracts post-2028.

SBIs are a key, and controversial, node in President Donald Trump’s Golden Domeinitiative designed to create an air and missile defense shield over the US homeland.

The prize model proposal’s requirement for such a high level of self funding came as a bit of a surprise to industry, with a handful of sources with skin in the game and outside analysts telling Breaking Defense that it could make little sense for some potential bidders from an economic viewpoint.

“I think it’s a smart approach in theory, but the dollar amounts the government is offering seem rather low. … The actual cost for companies to compete in this is likely to be many times higher than the potential award amounts, even if it is just to demonstrate a prototype,” said Todd Harrison, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

The plan is encapsulated in preliminary “lines of effort” (LOEs) provided to industry last month and obtained by Breaking Defense. The LOEs cover two types of prototype interceptors: endo-atmospheric, designed to shoot down incoming missiles before they leave the atmosphere, and exo-atmospheric, designed to hit them just after they pass over the notional line into space and achieve 120 kilometers (74.6 miles) in altitude.

Besides the SBI prototypes themselves, there are also LOEs envisioning similar prize projects for the prototyping of related fire control sensors, systems to counter hypersonic glide vehicles, and ground elements.

Somewhat mysteriously, there was no LOE issued for mid-course SBIs, despite their inclusion in slides shown during the Aug. 7 Golden Dome industry day by Col. Byron McClain, program executive office for Space Combat Power at Space Systems Command (SSC) and also obtained by Breaking Defense. (The industry day, despite being held at an unclassified level, was closed to press.)

The LOEs are essentially guides for interested firms, designed to provide an upfront idea about the SBI acquisition model, rather than formal bid solicitations.

Up to now, the only official documents related to SBI development have been a June request for information and an Aug. 21 pre-notification about the planned “request for prototype proposal (RPP)” from a Space Force that contained few details.

Industry representatives have been expecting the official RPP to drop any day now. And while it’s possible that the RPP could totally upend the plan laid out in the LOEs, several industry representatives said they believe major changes are unlikely.

Indeed, Maj. Gen. Stephen Purdy, acting assistant secretary of the Air Force for Space Acquisition and Integration and military deputy, foreshadowed the SBI acquisition approach in his July 23 testimony to the House Armed Services Committee, saying that the Pentagon’s Golden Dome acquisition team was looking for ways to speed SBI development, including “prize activities, [and] cooperative work with industry where they’re leveraging industry development.”

SSC did not respond by press time to questions from Breaking Defense about the SBI acquisition plan and the timing of the RPP. Gen. Michael Guetlein, the Defense Department’s acquisition czar for Golden Dome, has yet to detail his proposed architecture.

“As we continue gathering information from industry, academia, national labs, and other government agencies for support to Golden Dome for America, it would be imprudent for the Department to release further information on this program during these early stages, keeping operational security of this endeavor top of mind,” a DoD spokesperson said in response to questions about the SBI plan from Breaking Defense.

“We are doing our part to meet the President’s vision. The Golden Dome for America office is examining current and future solutions across the services and interagency to identify the most effective ways to modernize and quickly field the capabilities our nation needs to protect our Homeland,” the spokesperson added.

For both the endo- and exo-atmospheric prototypes, the LOEs say that the initial award provided to “approximately three to five performers” qualifying to compete would be $120,000 with three one-year options.

“The Government does not anticipate providing any funding for this LOE other than the base amount of $120K, options of $120K per, and the prize funding discussed in this section,” state the LOEs for both the endo- and exo-atmospheric projects.

The prizes — with maximum values in the low hundreds of millions — would be awarded to the winners in each of four trial phases called “gates”: a ground test, two flight tests to demonstrated velocity and orbital insertion capabilities, and finally an intercept test using targets built via a separate contract vehicle and provided by the government.

For example, for the endo-atmospheric SBI variant, there is a total of $150 million for up to three winners for the ground test; $330 million for up to three winners of the first flight test; and $340 million for up to three winners for the second flight test.

There is no prize money listed for the final intercept test, which requires competitors to “kinetically negate a Government-provided and launched test target by June 2029.” Instead the LOE states: “Successful completion of Gate 1-4 equates to successful prototype demonstration making performers eligible for negotiated follow-on production contracts/OTs to be awarded.”

Industry Reaction: From Flabbergasted To Skeptical

More than one representative of the space and defense firms asked about the SBI prize plan described it as “insane” — citing the large investment required for competitors not just to fund development of the prototypes but also pay for their launch in order to compete.

The fact that there is no prospect for a production contract until well after the 2028 presidential election, putting the entire Golden Dome initiative into question due to its enormous costs, is another big disincentive, said a handful of industry representatives — most of whom declined to be named due to the preliminary nature of the LOE, as well as the Pentagon’s hyper-sensitivity on all things Golden Dome.

“None of the Big 5 DoD primes would make that size of investment with so little of a return on investment. They need scale and $$Billions in opportunity to make that level of ‘investment,'” said one industry source.

Officials from at least three US space and defense behemoths — Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and RTX — in the past have expressed interest in developing SBIs. None of those companies responded to requests for comment on the prize plans.

There also is an argument to be made that while an up-front corporate investment model might be a sound DoD strategy for acquiring dual-use space capabilities that have both commercial and military applications, it makes little sense in the case of SBIs because they arguably have no potential non-defense market.

“We … took note of that structure, and conclude from that the government is is shifting its mindset away from funding specific technologies that are unique to government applications, and imagining that private industry will do all the development provide all that development funding,” Tory Bruno, CEO of United Launch Alliance (ULA) told Breaking Defense in a Sept. 9 interview.

“I would encourage them to think carefully about what things are dual use … and therefore business cases could be closed … versus the things for which there really is no other application, and therefore a private company could never expect to spend the money required to create it, and then recover that money over time,” he added.

Some industry officials and analysts further opined that the plan would favor firms with very deep pockets.

“If these amounts hold true, then the competition seems biased in favor of large companies with access to a lot of capital that are willing and able to fund a program like this where the prospect of turning a profit is far beyond this competition,” AEI’s Harrison said.

In particular, several sources suggested the SBI acquisition model may well weed out all but those companies owned by wealthy private individuals rather than CEOs beholden to shareholders, such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

SpaceX — which reportedly has been pitching ideas for Golden Dome including for directed-energy SBIs along with partners Anduril and Palantir to top Trump administration and DoD officials — did not respond to a request for comment, nor did Palantir.

“We strongly support disruptive acquisition approaches that move industry towards more demonstrated performance with substantial upside in return for the risk undertaken,” said Gokul Subramanian, Anduril’s senior vice president of engineering.

And at least one industry representative of a smaller space operator said the model might also be a fit for more agile firms using innovative, low-cost manufacturing techniques and more willing to take risks.

Either way, Tom Karako, head of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that it’s “great to see an innovative approach to acquisition, but hopefully its innovation quotient increases entrants and bids rather than discouraging them.”

Quelle: Breaking Defense